US Plan to Assess Risky Disease Research Takes Shape

AP Photo/Patrick Semansky Research on lethal pathogens must be done in a controlled environment

Via The Guardian of Public Health

Analysts hired by the US government developed a mathematical model to help determine whether the risk of accidentally releasing a deadly pathogen outweighs the risk of performing gain-of-function research.  The model is patterned after risk assessments for the nuclear and chemical industries.

Manipulating a virus to make it more deadly or transmissible can help scientists to answer important questions about how the microbe evolved or how to kill it. But it is tricky to determine when the risk of accidentally releasing such a pathogen outweighs the benefits of this 'gain-of-function' research.
On 28 September, analysts hired by the US government revealed how they will model these risks mathematically — information that the government will consider as it determines whether to extenda year-long ban on federal funding for gain-of-function studies.
The model will enable policy-makers to determine the likelihood of a modified virus escaping a high-security laboratory and causing an outbreak. It will do so by analysing factors such as the type of airflow in a lab and the demographics of the area in which it is located. Analysts with the consulting group Gryphon Scientific in Takoma Park, Maryland, will deliver their final report to the US National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity (NSABB) in November. The NSABB will then issue its final recommendations on gain-of-function research to the federal government in early 2016.

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